Balkanization is a Major Loser in National Politics

Dividing and then reassembling a coalition doesn't work

The question most Democrats are still processing is, “how did we lose to a man found liable for rape, a convicted felon and fraudster who declared bankruptcy half a dozen times and was impeached twice.” The answer is clear. Identity politics is a major loser on the national stage.

One of the major lessons from the 2024 election is that Balkanization politics was a failure. The contrast between the two campaigns presented a stark test for identity politics and it failed spectacularly. This failure produced a resounding victory for Trump and a disappointing result for the Democrats.

The Democrat side divided the electorate into segments. If the commentator was black or Latino, it was a sure bet that you would hear an analysis based on “black folk” or “you have to talk to the needs of Latino men”. Micheal Steele, Al Sharpton and Maria Teresa Kumar are good examples of Balkanizers. They spoke to limited audiences and, in the process, either irritated or dismissed most Americans. Their pitch was always provincial. And, for most Americans, they were always talking about someone else. The result was that they seemed to be advocating for special interests rather than for the population writ large.

Another example of Balkanization was the issue of abortion. At the local level and in state referendums, the issue mostly prevailed. But, on the national stage, it underperformed. Why? Two basic reasons. First, it became ‘identity politics’. The protesters were mostly women of a certain age range. But, more significantly, it was less important than the fundamental dissatisfactions that had come to drive politics.

The Republicans, on the other hand, ran a different campaign. They found a common thread that ran through much of the voting population – grievance and dissatisfaction with their condition and futures. In a strange irony, voters gravitated to a billionaire reality talk show star with a history of grift as their standard bearer. While the Democrats were busy Balkanizing, the MAGA crowd tapped in to the dominant issue in contemporary American politics. While a very wealthy Speaker Emeritus of the House, who opposed barring Representatives from trading on insider knowledge, droned on about the ‘party of the working class’, a guy who never worked in his life delivered a message that resonated with them. The message trumped the messenger.

What Trump understood, and the Democrats refused to recognize, is that common threads win over identity politics at the national level. To put it more succinctly, a coalition of provincial grievances loses to a widely shared thread of common grievances. As a result of their understanding, Republicans approached voters on the basis of their common concerns and issues. Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Caucasians were united in a general dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. Generations from the Traditionalist to Gen-Z shared the same concerns. They felt the same pain.

Now, you can go on about how they found a negative and used it to win. But in politics such arguments are kamikaze raids on vacant lots. To quote the Ragin Cajun, “it’s about winning, stupid”. The Democrats lost a substantial part of the working class – Whites, Blacks, Asian, Latino - because they treated each as a Balkanized silo. The same is true of the Generations. You cannot argue that being an American is based on an allegiance to an idea, and then treat the electorate as a group of separate nationalities. If the Democrats do not learn that lesson, they will wander the wilderness for decades.

© Earl Smith